Risk factors

Diageo believes the following to be the principal risks and uncertainties facing the group. If any of these risks occur, Diageo’s business, financial condition and results of operations could suffer and the trading price and liquidity of securities could decline.

In the current global financial crisis and uncertain economic environment, certain risks may gain more prominence either individually or when taken together. The following are examples of ways that any of the risks below may become so exacerbated. Demand for beverage alcohol products, in particular luxury or super premium products, may decrease with a reduction in consumer spending levels. Costs of operations may increase if inflation were to become prevalent in the economic environment, resulting in an increase in the costs of raw materials. These factors may also lead to intensified competition for market share, with consequential potential adverse effects on volumes and prices. The financial and economic situation may have a negative impact on third parties with whom Diageo does, or may do, business. Any of these factors may affect the group’s results of operations, financial condition and liquidity.

If there is an extended period of constraint in the capital markets, with debt markets in particular experiencing a lack of liquidity, at a time when cash flows from Diageo’s business may be under pressure, this may have an impact on Diageo’s ability to maintain current long term strategies, with a consequent effect on the group’s growth rate. Such developments may adversely affect shareholder returns or share price. Additionally, continued volatility in exchange rates used to translate foreign currencies into pounds sterling may have a significant impact on Diageo’s reported results. Decreases in the trustees’ valuations of Diageo’s pension plans may also increase pension funding requirements.

Diageo faces competition that may reduce its market share and margins

Diageo faces substantial competition from several international companies as well as local and regional companies in the countries in which it operates. Diageo competes with drinks companies across a wide range of consumer drinking occasions. Within a number of categories, consolidation or realignment is still possible. Consolidation is also taking place amongst Diageo’s customers in many countries. Increased competition and unanticipated actions by competitors or customers could lead to downward pressure on prices and/or a decline in Diageo’s market share in any of these categories, which would adversely affect Diageo’s results and hinder its growth potential.

Diageo may not be able to derive the expected benefits from its strategy to focus on premium drinks or its cost-saving and restructuring programmes designed to enhance earnings

Diageo’s strategy is to focus on premium drinks to grow its business through organic sales and operating profit growth and the acquisition of premium drinks brands that add value for shareholders. There can be no assurance that Diageo’s strategic focus on premium drinks will result in opportunities for growth and improved margins.

It is possible that the pursuit of this strategic focus on premium drinks could give rise to further acquisitions (including associated financing), disposals, joint ventures or partnerships. There can be no guarantee that any such acquisition, disposal, joint venture or partnership would deliver the benefits intended.

Similarly, there can be no assurance that the cost-saving or restructuring programmes implemented by Diageo in order to improve efficiencies and deliver cost-savings will deliver the expected benefits.

Systems change programmes may not deliver the benefits intended and systems failures could lead to business disruption

Certain change programmes designed to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of end-to-end operating, administrative and financial systems and processes continue to be undertaken. This includes moving transaction processing from a number of markets to business service centres. There can be no certainty that these programmes will deliver the expected operational benefits. There is likely to be disruption caused to production processes and possibly to administrative and financial systems as further changes to such processes are effected. They could also lead to adverse customer or consumer reaction. Any failure of information systems could adversely impact on Diageo’s ability to operate. As with all large systems, Diageo’s information systems could be penetrated by outside parties intent on extracting information, corrupting information or disrupting business processes. Such unauthorised access could disrupt Diageo’s business and/or lead to loss of assets. The concentration of processes in business service centres also means that any disruption arising from system failure or physical plant issues could impact on a large portion of Diageo’s global business.

Regulatory decisions and changes in the legal and regulatory environment could increase Diageo’s costs and liabilities or limit its business activities

Diageo’s operations are subject to extensive regulatory requirements which include those in respect of production, product liability, distribution, importation, marketing, promotion, labelling, advertising, labour, pensions and environmental issues. Changes in laws, regulations or governmental policy could cause Diageo to incur material additional costs or liabilities that could adversely affect its business. In particular, governmental bodies in countries where Diageo operates may impose new labelling, product or production requirements, limitations on the advertising and/or promotion activities used to market beverage alcohol, restrictions on retail outlets, other restrictions on marketing, promotion and distribution or other restrictions on the locations or occasions where beverage alcohol is sold which directly or indirectly limit the sales of Diageo products. Regulatory authorities under whose laws Diageo operates may also have enforcement power that can subject the group to actions such as product recall, seizure of products or other sanctions, which could have an adverse effect on its sales or damage its reputation.

In addition, beverage alcohol products are the subject of national import and excise duties in most countries around the world. An increase in import or excise duties could have a significant adverse effect on Diageo’s sales revenue or margin, both through reducing overall consumption and by encouraging consumers to switch to lower-taxed categories of beverage alcohol.

Diageo’s reported after tax income is calculated based on extensive tax and accounting requirements in each of its relevant jurisdictions of operation. Changes in tax law (including tax rates), accounting policies and accounting standards could materially reduce Diageo’s reported after tax income.

Diageo is subject to litigation directed at the beverage alcohol industry and other litigation

Companies in the beverage alcohol industry are, from time to time, exposed to class action or other litigation relating to alcohol advertising, product liability, alcohol abuse problems or health consequences from the misuse of alcohol, and Diageo is routinely subject to litigation in the ordinary course of its operations. If such litigation resulted in fines, damages or reputational damage to Diageo or its brands, Diageo’s business could be materially adversely affected.

Contamination, counterfeiting or other circumstances could harm the integrity of customer support for Diageo’s brands and adversely affect the sales of those brands

The success of Diageo’s brands depends upon the positive image that consumers have of those brands, and contamination, whether arising accidentally, or through deliberate third-party action, or other events that harm the integrity or consumer support for those brands, could adversely affect their sales. Diageo purchases most of the raw materials for the production and packaging of its products from third-party producers or on the open market. Diageo may be subject to liability if contaminants in those raw materials or defects in the distillation, fermentation or bottling process lead to low beverage quality or illness among, or injury to, Diageo’s consumers. In addition, Diageo may voluntarily recall products in the event of contamination or damage. A significant product liability judgement or a widespread product recall may negatively impact on sales and profitability of the affected brand or all Diageo brands for a period of time depending on product availability, competitive reaction and consumer attitudes. Even if a product liability claim is unsuccessful or is not fully pursued, resulting negative publicity could adversely affect Diageo’s reputation with existing and potential customers and its corporate and brand image. To the extent that third parties sell products which are either counterfeit versions of Diageo brands or inferior brands that look like Diageo brands, consumers of Diageo brands could confuse Diageo products with them. This could cause them to refrain from purchasing Diageo brands in the future and in turn could impair brand equity and adversely affect Diageo’s business.

Demand for Diageo’s products may be adversely affected by changes in consumer preferences and tastes and adverse impacts of a declining economy

Diageo’s collection of brands includes some of the world’s leading beverage alcohol brands as well as brands of local prominence. Maintaining Diageo’s competitive position depends on its continued ability to offer products that have a strong appeal to consumers. Consumer preferences may shift due to a variety of factors including changes in demographic and social trends, public health regulations, changes in travel, vacation or leisure activity patterns, weather effects and a downturn in economic conditions, which may reduce consumers’ willingness to purchase premium branded products. In addition, concerns about health effects due to negative publicity regarding alcohol consumption, negative dietary effects, regulatory action or any litigation or customer complaints against companies in the industry may have an adverse effect on Diageo’s profitability.

The competitive position of Diageo’s brands could also be affected adversely by any failure to achieve consistent, reliable quality in the product or service levels to customers.

In addition, both the launch and ongoing success of new products is inherently uncertain especially as to their appeal to consumers. The failure to launch a new product successfully can give rise to inventory write offs and other costs and can affect consumer perception of an existing brand. Growth in Diageo’s business has been based on both the launch of new products and the growth of existing products. Product innovation remains a significant aspect of Diageo’s plans for growth. There can be no assurance as to Diageo’s continuing ability to develop and launch successful new products or variants of existing products or as to the profitable lifespan of newly or recently developed products.

Any significant changes in consumer preferences and failure to anticipate and react to such changes could result in reduced demand for Diageo’s products and erosion of its competitive and financial position. Continued economic pressures could lead to consumer selection of products at lower price points, whether Diageo’s or those of competitors, which may have an adverse effect on Diageo’s profitability.

If the social acceptability of Diageo’s products declines, Diageo’s sales volume could decrease and the business could be materially adversely affected

In recent years, there has been increased social and political attention directed to the beverage alcohol industry. Diageo believes that this attention is the result of public concern over problems related to alcohol abuse, including drink driving, underage drinking and health consequences from the misuse of alcohol. If, as a result, the general social acceptability of beverage alcohol were to decline significantly, sales of Diageo’s products could materially decrease.

Diageo’s operating results may be adversely affected by increased costs or shortages of labour

Diageo’s operating results could be adversely affected by labour or skill shortages or increased labour costs due to increased competition for employees, higher employee turnover or increased employee benefit costs. Diageo’s success is dependent on the capability of its employees. There is no guarantee that Diageo will continue to be able to recruit, retain and develop the capabilities that it requires to deliver its strategy, for example in relation to sales, marketing and innovation capability within markets or in its senior management. The loss of senior management or other key personnel or the inability to identify, attract and retain qualified personnel in the future could make it difficult to manage the business and could adversely affect operations and financial results.

Diageo’s operating results may be adversely affected by disruption to production facilities or business service centres

Diageo would be affected if there were a catastrophic failure of its major production facilities or business service centres. See ‘Business description – Premium drinks – Production’ for details of Diageo’s principal production areas. In addition, the maintenance and development of information systems may result in systems failures which may adversely affect business operations.

Diageo has a substantial inventory of aged product categories, principally scotch whisky and Canadian whisky, which mature over periods of up to 30 years. The maturing inventory is stored primarily in Scotland, and the loss through contamination, fire or other natural disaster of all or a portion of the stock of any one of those aged product categories could result in a significant reduction in supply of those products, and consequently, Diageo would not be able to meet consumer demand for those products as it arises. There can be no assurance that insurance proceeds would cover the replacement value of Diageo’s maturing inventory or other assets, were such assets to be lost due to contamination, fire or natural disasters or destruction resulting from negligence or the acts of third parties. In addition, there is an inherent risk of forecasting error in determining the quantity of maturing stock to lay down in a given year for future consumption. This could lead to an inability to supply future demand or lead to a future surplus of inventory and consequent write down in value of maturing stocks.

An increase in the cost of raw materials or energy could affect Diageo’s profitability

The components that Diageo uses for the production of its beverage products are largely commodities that are subject to price volatility caused by changes in global supply and demand, weather conditions, agricultural uncertainty and/or governmental controls. Commodity price changes may result in unexpected increases in the cost of raw materials, glass bottles and other packaging materials and Diageo’s beverage products. Diageo may also be adversely affected by shortages of raw materials or packaging materials. In addition, energy cost increases result in higher transportation, freight and other operating costs. Diageo may not be able to increase its prices to offset these increased costs without suffering reduced volume, sales and operating profit. Diageo may experience significant increases in commodity costs and energy costs.

Diageo’s business may be adversely impacted by unfavourable economic conditions or political or other developments and risks in the countries in which it operates

Diageo’s business is dependent on general economic conditions in the United States, Great Britain and other important markets. A significant deterioration in these conditions, including a reduction in consumer spending levels, customer destocking, the failure of customer, supplier or financial counterparties or a reduction in the availability of, or an increase in the cost of financing to, Diageo, could have a material adverse effect on Diageo’s business and results of operations. In addition, Diageo may be adversely affected by political and economic developments or industrial action in any of the countries where Diageo has distribution networks, production facilities or marketing companies. Diageo’s operations are also subject to a variety of other risks and uncertainties related to trading in numerous foreign countries, including political or economic upheaval and the imposition of any import, investment or currency restrictions, including tariffs and import quotas or any restrictions on the repatriation of earnings and capital. Political and/or social unrest, potential health issues (including pandemic issues) and terrorist threats and/or acts may also occur in various places around the world, which will have an impact on trade, tourism and travel. These disruptions can affect Diageo’s ability to import or export products and to repatriate funds, as well as affecting the levels of consumer demand (for example in duty free outlets at airports or in on trade premises in affected regions) and therefore Diageo’s levels of sales or profitability. Part of Diageo’s growth strategy includes expanding its business in certain countries where consumer spending in general, and spending on Diageo’s products in particular, has not historically been as great but where there are prospects for growth. There is no guarantee that this strategy will be successful and some of the markets represent a higher risk in terms of their changing regulatory environments and higher degree of uncertainty over levels of consumer spending.

Diageo may also be adversely affected by movements in the value of, and returns from, the investments held by its pension funds.

Diageo may be adversely affected by fluctuations in exchange rates. The results of operations of Diageo are accounted for in pounds sterling. Approximately 37% of sales in the year ended 30 June 2009 were in US dollars, approximately 12% were in sterling and approximately 18% were in euros. Movements in exchange rates used to translate foreign currencies into pounds sterling may have a significant impact on Diageo’s reported results of operations from year to year.

Diageo may also be adversely impacted by fluctuations in interest rates, mainly through an increased interest expense. To partly delay any adverse impact from interest rate movements, the group’s policy is to maintain fixed rate borrowings within a band of 40% to 60% of projected net borrowings, and the overall net borrowings portfolio is managed according to a duration measure. See ‘Business review – Risk management’.

Diageo’s operations may be adversely affected by failure to maintain or renegotiate distribution, supply and manufacturing agreements on favourable terms

Diageo’s business has a number of distribution agreements for brands owned by it or by other companies. These agreements vary depending on the particular brand, but tend to be for a fixed number of years. There can be no assurance that Diageo will be able to renegotiate distribution rights on favourable terms when they expire or that agreements will not be terminated. Failure to renew distribution agreements on favourable terms could have an adverse impact on Diageo’s sales and operating profit. In addition, Diageo’s sales and operating profit may be adversely affected by any disputes with distributors of its products or suppliers of raw materials, or a failure to renew supply or manufacturing agreements on favourable terms.

Diageo may not be able to protect its intellectual property rights

Given the importance of brand recognition to its business, Diageo has invested considerable effort in protecting its intellectual property rights, including trademark registration and domain names. Diageo’s patents cover some of its process technology, including some aspects of its bottle marking technology. Diageo also uses security measures and agreements to protect its confidential information. However, Diageo cannot be certain that the steps it has taken will be sufficient or that third parties will not infringe on or misappropriate its intellectual property rights. Moreover, some of the countries in which Diageo operates offer less intellectual property protection than Europe or North America. Given the attractiveness of Diageo’s brands to consumers, it is not uncommon for counterfeit products to be manufactured. Diageo cannot be certain that the steps it takes to prevent, detect and eliminate counterfeit products will be effective in preventing material loss of profits or erosion of brand equity resulting from lower quality or even dangerous counterfeit product reaching the market. If Diageo is unable to protect its intellectual property rights against infringement or misappropriation, this could materially harm its future financial results and ability to develop its business.

It may be difficult to effect service of US process and enforce US legal process against the directors of Diageo

Diageo is a public limited company incorporated under the laws of England and Wales. The majority of Diageo’s directors and officers, and some of the experts named in this document, reside outside of the United States, principally in the United Kingdom. A substantial portion of Diageo’s assets, and the assets of such persons, are located outside of the United States. Therefore, it may not be possible to effect service of process within the United States upon Diageo or these persons in order to enforce judgements of US courts against Diageo or these persons based on the civil liability provisions of the US federal securities laws. There is doubt as to the enforceability in England and Wales, in original actions or in actions for enforcement of judgements of US courts, of civil liabilities solely based on the US federal securities laws.